The first five months of 2023 have witnessed at least six major events/trends that augur badly for global economic and socio-political prospects, points out Shankar Acharya, former chief economic adviser to the Government of India.
Rising tensions over eating beef in Hindu-majority India are starting to hit the multi-billion dollar buffalo meat trade.
'India has always been a bottom-up stock-picking market, and as growth recovers with higher liquidity, mid and small-caps always tend to outperform.'
The Chinese dependence is far from over, industry players are also citing a shortage of electronic toys in the country.
Both the countries have increased prices of gas recently.
Mutual funds (MFs) have lined up information technology (IT) funds, indicating that technology stocks are back on fund managers' radar after a hiatus. Over the past 18 months, stock prices for companies in the software space have either corrected or remained subdued. Fund houses have launched five IT-based sectoral funds in the past three months, with three of them taking the passive route.
In Dubai, A Ganesh Nadar encountered high speeds on smooth-as-silk-roads, no bureaucracy, gold, Mr Toad's. And snow!
Gold continued its upward trend for the sixth straight day and gained another Rs 190 to Rs 26,190 per ten gram at the bullion market on Thursday.
Forex dealers said strengthening of the euro against the dollar overseas and a higher opening in the domestic equity market also supported the local currency.
At the Interbank Foreign Exchange (Forex) market, the domestic unit opened lower at 56.02 as against its previous close of 55.64 on dollar buying by importers, mainly oil refiners, to meet their month-end requirements.
'At the heart of the strategic relationship between our countries are economic ties.'
Of $90 billion remittances that India is expected to receive in 2022, only $27.4 billion has come in the first half of the year.
Textile stocks have exhibited a mixed performance so far this calendar year (CY23), amidst higher domestic cotton prices and tepid global demand. Shares of Page Industries, Dollar Industries, Lux Industries, and VIP Clothing have declined up to 13 per cent so far in CY23, as against a 9 per cent jump in the S&P BSE Sensex. On the contrary, shares of Arvind, Welspun India, Raymond, and Gokaldas Exports have gained up to 51 per cent, during the same period.
In the coming few weeks, agriculture markets in North and Central India will be full of wheat, mustard, and chana - the three main rabi crops grown in these parts. Not only will the price trajectory of these determine the course of food inflation in the months to come, but it could also have a wider impact on the rural economy in the main growing states for these crops. Wheat and chana are largely grown in Madhya Pradesh (MP).
'It will be a repeated folly to ever think that China will not attack us.'
The government has to take a call on reducing or retaining the excise rate.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Saturday announced the adoption of the New Delhi Leaders Declaration, a significant victory for India's G20 presidency that came amid increasing tensions and divergent views over the Ukraine conflict.
India's rupee is likely to remain under pressure due to high prices of crude oil and other commodities, and may stabilise at around 79-80 against the US dollar in the near term, say experts amid limited headroom available with the Reserve Bank to check the weakening of the domestic currency. The currency has slumped over 5 per cent this year after Russia's invasion of Ukraine sent international crude oil prices soaring to a decade high. On Monday, rupee ended at a fresh all-time low of 78.34 (provisional) against the US dollar.
India's merchandise exports in October surged 42.33 per cent to $35.47 billion on the back of good performance by the engineering and petroleum sectors, as per provisional data released by the government on Monday. The exports stood at $24.92 billion in October 2020 and $26.23 billion in October 2019. "India's merchandise exports in October 2021 was $35.47 billion, an increase of 42.33 per cent over $24.92 billion in October 2020 and an increase of 35.21 per cent over $26.23 billion in October 2019," as per an official statement.
The government on Friday made it mandatory for social media influencers to disclose their "material" interest in endorsing products and services and violations can attract strict legal action, including ban on endorsements. The regulations are part of continuing efforts to curb misleading advertisements as well protect the interests of consumers amid the expanding social influencer market which is projected to be worth around Rs 2,800 crore by 2025. The new guidelines named 'Endorsement Know Hows -- for celebrities, influencers and virtual media influencers (Avatar or computer generated character) on social media platforms' has been issued by the Department of Consumers Affairs.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Tuesday said it is expecting some slowdown in the Indian economy next fiscal year and projected the growth to 6.1 per cent from 6.8 per cent during the current fiscal ending March 31. The IMF on Tuesday released the January update of its World Economic Outlook, according to which the global growth is projected to fall from an estimated 3.4 per cent in 2022 to 2.9 per cent in 2023, then rise to 3.1 per cent in 2024. "Our growth projections actually for India are unchanged from our October Outlook.
In cross-currency trades, the rupee firmed up further against the pound sterling
'The finance ministry and the RBI will never admit to the difficulties in the economy because if they do so, it will adversely impact the financial markets, etc.' 'They like to present a rosy picture that everything is fine and under control.'
The rise in consumer price index (CPI) inflation could see the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in an extended pause mode as regards interest rates, and in turn, keep the market rally in check, believe analysts. Signs of inflation cooling off in the US, however, is likely to provide some cushion as the expectations of a change in stance by the US Fed as regards interest rates is likely to aid sentiment. Back home, CPI inflation surged for the first time in five months to 4.81 per cent in June 2023, and was higher than the street's expectations of 4.58 per cent.
BSE Midcap index outperformed the benchmark indices to end with 0.4% gains.
The restrictions on gold imports will be reviewed by March end, Finance Minister P Chidambaram said on Monday.
Major General S C N Jatar, who passed into the ages on Monday night, thwarted anti-national forces at the peak of the Assam agitation. Colonel Anil A Athale (retd) salutes this officer and gentleman.
A yellow glow is likely to stand out amid grey geopolitical clouds in 2023, with gold price projected to touch Rs 60,000 per 10 grams in the Indian market as more investors veer towards safe-haven assets. In a year where volatility was more a norm than an exception, gold prices in the international market oscillated from a peak of $2,070 per ounce in March to a low of $1,616 per ounce in November and is steadily recovering since then, according to market experts. At the beginning of 2022, gold prices were around $1,800 an ounce.
The rupee weakened by 27 paise to trade at six-week low of 60.45 against the US dollar in early trade today at the Interbank Foreign Exchange market on high demand for the American currency from importers.
FMCG import bill is bloated, Modi must do something to bring it down.
India's exports increased 3.79 per cent to $26.75 billion in January, helping the trade deficit to narrow to $9.92 billion.
Chief Economic Advisor V Anantha Nageswaran on Thursday said the economy is expected to grow at 6.5 per cent in the current fiscal notwithstanding deficient rains in August. India recorded economic growth of 7.8 per cent in the April-June quarter of 2023-24 against 13.1 per cent in the year-ago period. India's economy in Q1 grew at the fastest pace in a year, on the shoulders of a boost in capital expenditure both at central and state levels, along with stronger consumption demand, especially in rural areas, and improved performance in the services sector, he said.
He said the border situation remained a big problem as the military has been holding its ground for two winters.
Gold rises on firm demand, global buoyancy
The United Nations on Wednesday pared down India's growth forecast by 20 basis points to 5.8 per cent for 2023 calendar year, citing higher interest rates and risks of recession in the developed world weighing on investment and exports. "Economic growth in India is projected to moderate in 2023, with higher interest rates weighing on investment and slower global growth weakening exports," it said in its latest World Economic Situation and Prospects report. The report has projected global trade to contract 0.4 per cent and the world economy to grow at 1.9 per cent in 2023.
The probe agency is learnt to have taken possession of multiple physical and digital records during a search operation conducted on the premises of the South Korean firm in Delhi and Mumbai this week.
The companies' underrecoveries stood at a whopping Rs 1,39,869 crore last financial year. Of that, Rs 62,837 crore was accounted for by diesel alone.
Widening of the tax base, doing away with cess and surcharge, improvement in compliance and moderation in tax for emerging sectors are some of the suggestions submitted to the Finance Ministry ahead of the Budget by Think Change Forum (TCF). Experts are of the opinion that there is a need to grow tax revenues for the government to drive economic growth and make investments in developmental activities, TCF, the think tank said in a statement. Towards this end, poor compliance was identified as a weak link in achieving targeted collections leading to complex issues like overtaxing, complicated tax structures, rising litigation, among others.
The stubbornly high global crude oil prices are opening up a can of worms to heightened inflation risks and likely to disrupt government's fiscal maths along with deteriorating global financial conditions.
Rising prices of cereals and concerns over rice production in the 2023-2024 crop year due to insufficient rains followed by floods could be the possible causes.
